Choose your strategy. BAL = higher volume, balanced edge. SEL = fewer/sharper picks, every SEL pick is also a BAL pick.
| Strategy | Period | Bets | W-L | WR | ROI |
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| Strategy | Bets | W-L | WR | ROI |
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| Strategy | Bets | W-L | WR | ROI |
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| Day | Bets | W-L | WR | ROI |
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| Time | Matchup | Pick | Strategies | Conf | Spread | Status |
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Direction: OVERS only. The model has structurally stronger edge on overs — recreational money skews under, books overcharge unders.
Lines covered: 3.5 · 4.5 · 5.5 (all three). Edge floor: |model − market| ≥ 0.12.
Model: v2-binary — CatBoost + XGBoost + Focal LightGBM × 5 seeds × 3 lines = 45 models. Trained on 2018–2026-03-31 (Apr+May 2026 fully OOS).
Volume: ~3–4 picks/day average. Some days zero. Some days 5–10 stacked.